Coronavirus: the age difference behind lower Swiss death rate

Switzerland’s Covid-19 death rate has been lower than much of the rest of Europe. A lower infection rate among older people appears to be one reason why.

The rates of deaths among those either recovering or dying have been particularly high in Belgium (40%), France (34%) and Italy (31%). In other countries such as Austria (4%), Germany (5%) and Switzerland (7%) they have been much lower.

There are many reasons for variations in these death rates. Among them is case counting. More extensive testing typically captures more healthy cases that recover, bringing down the overall death rate.

However, another reason is differences in the number infected in each age groups. The elderly are more likely to die from Covid-19, so if more of them catch it, the overall death rate will be higher.

In Switzerland, 35% of Covid-19 cases were found in people over 59. In Germany and Austria the rate was around 30%, similar to Switzerland. However, the percentage of Covid-19 cases over 59 was more than 40% in France and more than 50% in both Belgium and Italy, 15 percentage points higher than in Switzerland and 20 percentage points higher than in Austria and Germany.

The percentage of the total population over 59 across all these countries is broadly similar. Switzerland (25%), Austria (25%) and Belgium (25%) have slightly lower percentages than France (26%), Germany (28%) and Italy (29%), but the differences are relatively small.

This suggests that significantly higher percentages of people over 59 have been infected with Covid-19 in France, Belgium and Italy. In Germany, Austria and Switzerland, a smaller percentage of those over 59 have been infected. This is likely to explain at least some of the difference in overall death rates between these countries.

The same thing can also be observed in Iceland where the death rate so far is less than 1% (0.7%). There, only 17% of infections have been in people above the age of 59. South Korea is a further example of a nation where a relatively low outcome-based death rate (2.8%) is associated with a relatively low percentage of infections among those over 59 (24%).

More on this:
Infection and testing data (in English)

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