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Switzerland set for warmest recorded winter

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Switzerland is heading for its warmest winter since records began in 1864, according to Swiss Meteo.

Switzerland set for warmest recorded winter
© Mario Krpan | Dreamstime.com

The average temperature across the period from December to February was 0.7 degrees, according to the weather forecaster.

This winter brought a more consistent than normal warm air current from the Atlantic ocean. This has prevented cold air descending from the north.

Switzerland has experienced consistently warmer winters over the last 30 years. Average winter temperatures went above zero in 1990, 2007 and 2016. From 1864 to 1990 the average winter temperature was around -3 degrees.

Average winter temperatures in Switzerland have on average warmed by nearly 2 degrees since the preindustrial period, according to Swiss Meteo. 

Average winter temperatures are projected to rise a further 3.5 degrees between now and 2050.

More on this:
Swiss Meteo blog (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now

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Switzerland’s largest glacier could shrink by half by century end

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Recent 3D modelling estimates how climate change will affect the Aletsch Glacier. In the worst case scenario modeled by researchers at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich, only a few small patches of ice would remain.

Aletsch Glacier – © Bram De Vrind _ Dreamstime.com

Aletsch, the largest glacier in Switzerland and the Alps, currently stretches over 23 km from its 4,000m high starting point in the Jungfrau region to the Massa Gorge, roughly 2500 m below.

The glacier has already receded by a kilometre since 2000 and scientists predict this trend will continue.

Researchers at ETH Zurich used a 3D glacier model to map three different regional global warming scenarios. Each scenario uses different atmospheric greenhouse concentrations that result in different temperature increases.

The three scenarios include temperature increases of 2 degrees, 2-4 degrees and 4-8 degrees – higher than the 1960–1990 reference period.

In the worst scenario nearly all of the ice will be gone by 2100. Even in the best scenario of 2 degrees of warming, around half of the glacier will melt.

More on this:
ETH Zurich study (In English)

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Switzerland heading for third hottest summer on record

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According to Swiss Meteo, this summer will probably be Switzerland’s third hottest on record.

Climate change Switzerland
© Gyula Marton | Dreamstime.com

This year’s average summer temperature will be between 15 and 16 degrees, around 2 degrees higher than the norm between 1981 and 2010, according to the forecaster.

The marked rise in summer temperatures is a sign of climate change, according to Swiss Meteo. Since the preindustrial period from 1871 to 1900, average summer temperatures have risen by around 2 degrees.

Since records began there have been four summers with average temperatures beyond 15 degrees: 2003, 2015, 2017, 2018. 2003 was the hottest, reaching an average of 16.9 degrees. The summer of 2019 will soon be added to this list, most likely in third place.

The final data will be published here on 13 September 2019.

More on this:
Meteo Swiss blog (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now

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Is Greta Thunberg’s sea voyage to New York really less polluting than flying?

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To avoid the high carbon footprint of flying, Greta Thunberg, the young Swedish climate activist is instead sailing from Europe to New York to attend a global United Nations summit.

Is Greta Thunberg’s sea voyage to New York really less polluting than flying?
© Stig Alenäs | Dreamstime.com

However, there is a snag. According to the German newspaper Die Tageszeitung, the coming and going of her fellow crew members from New York by plane will clock up six transatlantic flights, three times a single return trip.

Tackling climate change is complex. Our world is made up of complex interwoven systems that are difficult to quickly escape. A lot of trial and error will be required to get there.

Taming the reflex to judge, something that often gets in the way of attempts to change things, might be one of the biggest challenges.

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Climate change affecting Switzerland at twice the global rate

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This week, meteorological bigwigs from around the world meet in Geneva, the home of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), to discuss meteorology and climate change.

© Victor Koldunov _ Dreamstime.com

Among many things, the WMO is involved in measuring compliance with greenhouse gas emissions using measuring stations around the world.

A report by WMO says that the four years from 2015 to 2018 were the four warmest on record and that the heat contained in the ocean is at a record high. The average global temperature is now 1 degree above pre-industrial levels and we are not on track to meet the climate change targets that could rein in temperature increases, says the report.

A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the impacts of global warming estimates emissions cuts to 45% of 2010 levels by 2030 and “net zero” emissions by around 2050 are now needed to avert unstoppable climate change. These targets are more stringent than those previously thought necessary.

In an interview, Peter Binder, the Director General of MeteoSwiss, who is at the meeting, told CNN Money that temperature rises in Switzerland are double the global mean. Rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have added 2 degrees to average Swiss temperatures compared to a global mean rise of 1 degree.

Going forward, Binder expects Switzerland to experience more hot days with higher maximums as periods of heatwaves and drought get longer and more frequent.

MeteoSwiss and the University ETH in Zurich are working together to develop predicted climate changes in Switzerland as the basis for working out how Switzerland might mitigate and adapt to the changes. These will then be used by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to aid political discussions in Bern.

With recent predictions of a 3 to 5 degree rise in temperatures this century, well above the IPCC’s 1.5 degree target, the future of humans on this planet looks grim. However, Binder still thinks we have a chance if we work hard on cutting emissions.

More on this:
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018 (in English)

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Over half of Swiss ready to rethink lifestyle to save the planet, according to survey

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Over half (54%) of those surveyed felt climate change was serious enough for them to rethink their way of life, according to a survey by GFS Zurich.

Flood in Ticino 2014_© Morseicinque _ Dreamstime.com

Across Switzerland, 62% of women and 46% of men thought this. The percentage was higher in German-speaking Switzerland (65%) than in French-speaking Switzerland (29%).

Only a minority thought technological progress alone could solve the problem. Changes in how we live were considered an essential ingredient.

Around two fifths agreed that emissions taxes should rise if future emissions don’t fall, while around half agreed the extra tax collected should be ploughed into reducing building emissions, replacing diesel heating systems and cutting energy use.

Two thirds thought Switzerland should have a plan to replace fossil fuel use within 20 years and around 40% thought Switzerland should aim to be Europe’s environmental leader.

Rising urgency was accompanied by declining optimism. The percentage who were sure the shift to clean energy would work has declined substantially since 2016 from 26% to 10%.

More on this:
GFS Zurich survey (in German)

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Climate change contributes to surprise fall in Swiss GDP

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Third quarter Swiss GDP figures released yesterday show Switzerland’s economy shrank compared to the quarter before.

© Tobias Arhelger | Dreamstime.com

GDP for the quarter to September was down by 0.2% compared to the quarter before, ending an 18-month run of quarterly growth.

The fall in Swiss GDP follows a quarterly slowdown across the rest of Europe, in Germany in particular. A fall in the output of Germany’s automotive sector has had a knock on effect in Switzerland. Swiss manufacturing output, which includes industries reliant on automotive, was down by 0.6% in the third quarter.

Another sector feeling the pinch was energy1, which fell by 2.2% in the third quarter compared to the quarter before. A dry summer cut hydroelectric power generation.

Swiss Meteo expects summer heatwaves like the one this year every 5 to 10 years assuming a middle greenhouse gas emission scenario.

More on this:
SECO quarterly GDP estimates (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now
1 Energy, waste, teaching and health make up about 10% of Swiss GDP.

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Global warming to impact Switzerland at twice average speed, warns researcher

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global temperature rise of 2 degrees will have a far greater impact than previously predicted.

Stranded boat on Pont-en-Ogoz, canton Fribourg in Switzerland_2018_© Marko Šarenac _ Dreamstime.com

To avoid catastrophe, the authors recommend aiming for a lower 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures, only half a degree higher than now. Achieving this would require net global emissions to reach zero by 2050 at the latest.

Sonia Seneviratne, a climate researcher at ETH Zurich told the newspaper Le Matin that Swiss climate data from 1864 to 2017 show Swiss temperatures have risen noticeably more than the global average. Going forward she predicts temperature rises in Switzerland will be twice the world average, something that will require changes in the way people live.

Any delays in acting reduce our margin of manœuvre. Greenhouse gases, once in the atmosphere persist for centuries, even millennia.

Between 2008 and 2012, net emissions in Switzerland fell 8% below 1990 emissions. A drop of 20% is targeted by 2020 and a drop of 50% by 2030. In February 2015, the Federal Council approved an emissions reduction target of 70% to 85% by 2050.

Switzerland’s federal environmental office (OFEV) says it will examine the consequences of the latest IPCC report, and possibly revise targets and aim for zero net emissions by 2050.

The government’s main lever of change is the law on CO2, which includes carbon taxes. Globally, Switzerland scores well carbon tax, however has gapping holes in taxing industry, electricity generation and agriculture.

The OFEV’s revised targets are expected by autumn 2019.

More on this:
IPCC report (in English)
OFEV press release (in French)
Le Matin article (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now

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Family planning and climate change – the arithmetic causing a stir

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Following the recent release of a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on its dramatic climate change predictions, the news agency APF published a chart from 2017 showing the effects of various actions to reduce human emissions.

The action with the biggest impact, 24 times more impactful than going car free, is having one less child. The figures also show how this varies by country – it has twice the average impact in the US.

In addition, the numbers reveal the effect of migration. If an American child moved to Japan and lived like an average Japanese resident its impact would be reduced by five sixths.

The chart has caused a stir. In a later Tweet APF distanced itself from the chart by citing its source and saying that it is not suggesting readers have fewer children.

In an interview with RTS, Martine Rebetez, a climate professor at the University of Neuchâtel, described the chart as a provocation. According to her having fewer children is not the solution. There is no demographic explosion in Switzerland and those in poor regions emit almost no greenhouse gas. She thinks how we change the way we live is the central question.

© Tero Vesalainen | Dreamstime.com

Others disagree. The UK based organisation, Population Matters, patronized by David Attenborough, thinks that such an important element cannot be left out of the conversation. Attenborough says “I have no doubt that the fundamental source of all our problems, particularly our environmental problems, is population growth. I can’t think of a single problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve if there were less people.”

Population Matters’ president, Roger Martin, describes the world’s tendency to tiptoe around the subject of population growth as the ‘mad taboo’.

Population Matters says “Current global population growth — approximately 10,000 more per hour — will stop one day, simply because a finite planet cannot sustain an infinite number of people. But it can only stop in one of two ways: either sooner, the humane way, by fewer births — family planning backed by policy to make it available and encourage people to use it — or later, the “natural” way, by more deaths — famine, disease and predation/war. Campaigners against the former are in practice campaigning for the latter. We owe it to our children to prevent this.”

In addition, the organisation says that “This is not just an issue for poor countries. Each person living in a developed country does far more damage to the planet than any poor African; every extra Briton, for instance, has the carbon footprint of 22 more Malawians.”

The late British philosopher Bertrand Russell’s advice for future generations seems pertinent here.

More on this:
RTS article (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now
Environmental Research Letters report and chart (in English)

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Switzerland fast losing its snow to global warming

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Researchers at the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and the United Nations recently unveiled the results of an analysis of 22 years of satellite imagery showing the evolution of snow cover in Switzerland.

Average snow cover from 1995 to 2005

Swiss snow is disappearing fast, something probably linked to global warming reckon the researchers.

Average snow cover from 2005 to 2017

Over the period from 1995 to 2005, the area receiving little or no snow – 0 to 20% chance of snow – made up only 36% of the country. Between 2005 and 2017, the same area covered 44% of Switzerland, a 22% increase. Red shows areas receiving little or no snow in the images above.

Calculations were made using a new tool called the Swiss Data Cube, the fruit of a project started by Switzerland’s Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN).

The project involved going through 6,500 images from three American satellites launched in the 1970s.

More on this:
UNIGE press release (in English)

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