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Swiss parliament rejects initiative to limit immigration

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Last week, Switzerland’s parliament voted against an initiative put forward by the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) to limit immigration into Switzerland, according to RTS.

Swiss parliament rejects initiative to limit immigration
© Stefano Alberti | Dreamstime.com

The idea was rejected by 123 votes to 63. The UDC was the only party to support it.

If a majority of Swiss voters support the initiative the government would have one year to negotiate an end to free movement of people with the EU.

Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said the initiative could trigger a Swiss Brexit by ending Switzerland’s bilateral agreements with Brussels, something that could have a serious economic impact.

The UDC warned that Switzerland’s population could rise from 8.5 to 10 million if there is no change.

In 2014, a narrow majority of Swiss voters (50.3%) accepted a plan to allow the government to control immigration into Switzerland from the EU. This eventually resulted in a compromise that gives Swiss residents priority over foreign ones when applying for jobs.

More on this:
RTS article (in French) â€“ Take a 5 minute French test now

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EU migration into Switzerland down significantly in 2017

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Net migration into Switzerland from the EU was down by 11% last year, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).

© Arturo Osorno | Dreamstime.com

In 2017, a net 31,250 people from the EU and EFTA moved to Switzerland. And, with a 4% decline in the number arriving over the five months to May 2018, the fall looks set to continue.

For some nationalities the net flow went into reverse. In 2017, more Portuguese left Switzerland than arrived.

The fall appears to be related to diverging job markets. In 2017, jobs growth in Switzerland trailed the EU.

EU and EFTA arrivals are concentrated at both ends of the job skill spectrum. In 2017, 54 % were tertiary qualified – these percentage were even higher for French (63%) and Germans (50%). At the other end, 17% had no post school qualifications.

In 2017, EU and EFTA nationals were more active than the Swiss population – 87.2% compared to 84.4% of Swiss.

In addition, their burden on the social welfare system (2%) was below the national average (3.2%) and below that of Swiss nationals (2.6%) – 2016 figures.

They were however more likely to be unemployed. In 2016, 5.5% of EU and EFTA nationals in Switzerland were unemployed compared to the national average of 3.3% and 2.4% of Swiss nationals.

More on this:
SECO press release (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now

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Vote to end free Swiss-EU migration gets enough signatures

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Organizers of a vote to limit immigration into Switzerland from EU and EFTA nations, had until 18 July 2019 to collect 100,000 valid signatures. Last week, almost one year ahead of the deadline, the Swiss People’s Party announced that they had collected 125,000 signatures.

© Marian Vejcik _ Dreamstime.com

Surprised by how quickly the signatures were collected, Swiss People’s Party leader Albert Rösti told the newspaper Blick that people were motivated by employment concerns, especially in cross-border regions like Geneva, Vaud, Basel-City and Ticino.

The new initiative to limit immigration is less ambiguous than the one put to a vote on 9 February 2014. Instead of requiring the government to limit immigration, this one will ask voters whether or not they want to keep the agreement between the EU and Switzerland on free movement of people - full initiative text.

The EU has said repeatedly that the bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the bloc are an all-or-nothing package. If a majority of Swiss voters vote to end the agreement on free movement of people the whole deal, including trade, might unravel.

Rösti does not think the latest initiative puts Switzerland’s package of bilateral agreements at risk. He says that all of the other agreements in the package are in the EU’s interest and solutions could be found.

That might be true in theory, but in practice such a solution continues to elude the UK and Brussels.

Speaking to Swiss broadcaster RTS in January 2018, Roger Nordmann, president of the Socialist Party, said that a possible merit of this initiative is that it is focused on ending bilateral agreements, a sort of Swiss Brexit. He thinks this will bring clarity and doesn’t think Switzerland’s population will want to find itself in the same situation as the UK.

More on this:
Initiative text (in French) - Take a 5 minute French test now

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Do foreign workers raise unemployment? Study’s surprising answer.

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Tribune de Genève.

In the Italian-speaking canton of Ticino in Switzerland, more than one of four workers lives across the border. Numbers have doubled since 2002 when Switzerland agreed to open its job market to EU citizens. By the middle of 2015 there were over 62,000 EU-based workers, mainly from Italy, crossing the border to work.

© Ulisse3 | Dreamstime.com

© Ulisse3 | Dreamstime.com

Concerned by the impact this might be having on local Swiss workers, Ticino’s parliament and the Swiss Secretariat for the Economy (SECO) – the department that monitors unemployment, asked the Swiss Italian University (IRE) to conduct research on the subject. The study’s conclusions were recently leaked to the press.

What did the study conclude?
The study says “there was nothing proving cross-border workers had increased the risk of unemployment among the resident population”. Essentially, cross-border workers have not been substituting by local ones. In addition, it said the canton’s unemployment is stable at 3.4%, 0.2% higher than the national average.

Official unemployment statistics show that unemployment was 2.9% in Ticino in May 2002, the last month before Switzerland gave EU citizens access to their job market, and 3.5% in May 2015. The same percentages across all of Switzerland were 2.3% in May 2002 and 3.2% in May 2015. The rates for September 2015 were 3.4% in Ticino and 3.2% for Switzerland.

Researchers also surveyed 328 local employers, asking them how important the sometimes lower salaries demanded by cross-border workers were when deciding who to recruit. Overall this factor was seen as secondary. Those employed were chosen primarily for their skills and experience according to the study.

Lively response to an unexpected conclusion
Politicians across the spectrum have reacted with dismay. Some have suggested the study was incomplete and flawed. A member of the PDC said “The reality I’ve observed everyday on the ground, particularly while working with the unions, is completely different”. “It’s like asking pimps if their girls are happy” said the former coordinator of the Green party Sergio Savoia on Face­book. Others attacked SECO, which responded saying they couldn’t comment on a study that had not been officially released.

The Swiss Italian University (IRE) released a statement saying “the methodology used is based on the latest analytical techniques” adding “In Ticino we sometimes find it hard to accept scientific reality”.

Lumping it
The study’s conclusions are in line with an economic concept known as the Lump of Labour Fallacy. The concept challenges the idea that the amount of work available to workers is fixed. Those who believe there is a fixed amount of work fear immigrant workers and late retirees will exclude other workers from the job market. Those who believe the Lump of Labour Fallacy think this is nonsense. If immigration were to double a nation’s population, surely half of them would not be unemployed. More people would mean building more houses, growing more food, schooling more children etc. All of this would mean more work. In an article entitled Keep on Trucking, the Economist challenges a Financial Times writer on this point when she argues old people should retire to make way for younger workers.

Full Tribune de Genève article (in French)
Università della Svizzera italiana study (in Italian – this link was published on Sergio Savoia’s blog)

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